Towards low emissions growth

Climate change is one of the defining challenges of this century. Without a global effort to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, average global temperatures are likely to exceed 2°C even with current policies in place. While many developing countries made net-zero pledges at COP26, they face enormous challenges in their attempts to grow in a climate-constrained world. In India, there is high youth unemployment and hunger for substantial investments in hard infrastructure to industrialise and urbanise. Unlike the energy-intensive growth trajectories of the industrialised world, India’s economic growth in the last three decades, led by growth in the services sector, has come at a significantly lower emissions footprint. But in the coming decades, India will have to move to an investment-led and manufacturing-intensive growth model. Can India do this with a low emissions footprint?

A green industrialisation strategy

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement that India will strive to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 is commendable, it is essential to follow through with short-, medium- and long-term guiding strategies to ensure that India can maximize developmental gains in this transition. What India needs is a green industrialisation strategy that combines laws, policy instruments, and implementing institutions to steer its decentralised economic activities to become climate-friendly and resilient. A market-steering approach rather than a hands-off approach would encourage private sector investments in technologies needed to industrialise under climate constraints. While India has provided high level of policy support to deploy renewable energy, its industrial policy efforts to increase the domestic manufacturing of renewable energy technology components have been affected by policy incoherence, poor management of economic rents, and contradictory policy objectives. Academic research provides evidence that policies to develop local innovation capabilities alongside linking with global production networks create the most job opportunities. China’s techno-industrial policy strategy to strategically align RD&D, manufacturing, and deployment of solar and wind technologies paid off not only in its global competitiveness to produce clean energy technologies but also in creating more domestic job opportunities than India’s approach to prioritising only deployment. China has created more jobs in manufacturing solar and wind components for exports than domestic deployment. India could have retained some of those jobs if it were strategic in promoting these technologies. Besides China, Korea’s green growth strategy and the U.S.’s Endless Frontier Act, passed in the Senate in 2021 to make significant RD&D investments in emerging future technologies, are examples of techno-industrial policy strategies.

Recent decarbonisation modeling studies point to a significant role for battery, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage technologies to decarbonise India’s transport and industry sectors. While India may have lost the bus in terms of catching up on solar PV innovations, technologies needed to decarbonise the transport and industry sectors provide a significant opportunity. However, India’s R&D investments in these emerging green technologies are non-existent. The production-linked incentives (PLIs) under ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ are a step in the right direction for localising clean energy manufacturing activities. Nevertheless, they still do not address Aatmanirbhar’s economic goal to move from incremental changes to quantum jumps in economic activities. Aligning existing RD&D investments with the technologies needed for green industrialisation is crucial for realising quantum jumps. Besides, India also needs to nurture private entrepreneurship and experimentation in clean energy technologies. An industrial policy approach is necessary for gaining development co-benefits from the structural transition that climate change demands.

The way forward

India’s energy transition should be development-focused and aim to extract economic and employment rents from decarbonisation. The government should neither succumb to international pressure to decarbonise soon nor should it postpone its investment in decarbonisation technologies. Instead, India should set its pace based on its ability to capitalise on the opportunities to create wealth through green industrialisation. India should follow a path where it can negotiate carbon space to grow, buying time for the hard-to-abate sectors; push against counterproductive WTO trade litigations on decarbonisation technologies; all while making R&D investments in those technologies.

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